By Fundstrat analyst Tom Lee believes Bitcoin (BTC)’s price could reach $150,000 by the end of the year, rising 3X from its current value.
His bullish prediction is based on two simple factors: rising demand due to Bitcoin ETFs, and falling supply due to the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
Tom Lee’s Bitcoin Forecast
“You’ve got demand improving with the ETF, you’ve got supply shrinking with the halving, and if monetary policy eases – which we expect – that’s supportive of risk assets,” Lee said in an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box on Wednesday.
.@fundstrat’s Tom Lee expects stocks to decline in the first half, but hasn’t seen signs of a near-term top yet. He joins to discuss: pic.twitter.com/bBsyAN8foC
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) February 21, 2024
Bitcoin has historically correlated with “risk assets” like tech stocks, rising in value as interest rates fall (ex. 2020) and falling in value as interest rates rise (ex. 2022). According to CME Fedwatch, traders are pricing in a 53% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates by June.
Such liquidity cycles have also lined up with Bitcoin’s “halving,” a once in four year event that cuts the rate at which new coins enter circulation in half. This year’s Bitcoin halving will reduce Bitcoin’s daily issuance by 450 BTC – worth $23 million at today’s price.
Yet many analysts now believe that the newly approved Bitcoin spot ETFs will be the primary catalyst for Bitcoin’s next bull run. Funds launched by BlackRock, Fidelity, and others have collectively absorbed over $5 billion since launching on January 11, including another $136 million on Tuesday alone, according to BitMEX Research.
The Beauty Of Bitcoin
Such inflows have helped drive Bitcoin’s price above $50,000 for the first time in two years, trouncing JPMorgan’s expectations of a more prolonged “sell the news” event after ETF approvals.
“Bitcoin’s holding up, and that’s another reason I don’t think a drawdown is gonna start that soon,” Lee said in the interview. “It is sound money, it’s proving to be useful. It’s been a great store of value, it’s been a good risk asset. It’s also incredibly secure…there hasn’t been a single fraudulent entry on the blockchain since inception. I don’t think any bank can say that of their PNL and their accounting.”
Lee previously predicted that BTC could hit $180,000 by the day of the Bitcoin halving, based on estimated daily demand for Bitcoin ETFs reaching $125 million per day. As of February 21, The ETFs have averaged $185 million of daily demand.
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