By British multinational bank Standard Chartered expects Ethereum (ETH) to outperform Bitcoin (BTC) after spot ETFs for the former are approved by regulators in May of this year.
In a Monday research note, the bank waxed extra bullish on both assets, upping its previous Bitcoin cycle top prediction from $150,000 to $250,000 in 2025. Ethereum could climb over 4X to $14,000 per unit, following a 12-month tsunami of up to $45 billion in ETF inflows.
Standard Chartered Predicts $14,000 ETH
“We estimate that spot ETFs will drive inflows of 2.39-9.15 million ETH in the first twelve months after approval,” wrote the bank’s analyst Geoff Kendrick. “In USD terms, that equates to roughly $15 billion to $45 billion.”
The figure, Kendrick noted, mirrors his inflow expectations for Bitcoin spot ETFs in market cap-adjusted terms. Since launching on January 11 following a split-decision SEC approval, net inflows to the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have totaled over $11.9 billion despite non-stop outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
Standard Chartered bank worth $840B globally, points out the potential correlation between #Bitcoin and #gold. #Gold market cap = $14 Trillion#Bitcoin market cap = $1.4 Trillion
A gap of $12.6T exists. #Bitcoin at $680,000 would equal #Gold‘s market cap. pic.twitter.com/0F41ierFF9
— Wizzard Crypto (@NFTWizzardX) March 18, 2024
Given the current pace, the bank has revised its end-of-2024 Bitcoin price prediction from $100,000 to $150,000, with $200,000 marking the “new midpoint for a sideways trading range” at the end of 2025. This price would align with a “two-asset optimization scenario” where Bitcoin takes up 20% of investors’ allocation to gold within their portfolios.
Meanwhile, Ethereum is expected to either keep pace with or outpace BTC over the next two years, moving from its current 5.4% price ratio against the leading crypto in 2024, to the 7% ratio in the following year, which it held in 2021 and 2022.
“This would imply a USD level of 8000 for ETH,” the bank wrote as its end-of-2024, price prediction. For 2025, based on its BTC expectation of 200,000, it expects an ETH price of $14,000.
Will An Ethereum ETF Be Approved?
While Standard Chartered anticipates Ethereum ETF approval by May, several analysts have grown much less optimistic about the idea given regulators’ seeming lack of communication on the matter.
“Our odds of ETH ETF approval by May deadline are down to 35%,” wrote Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas to X last week. “All the signs/sources that were making us bullish 2.5mo out for BTC spot are not there this time.”
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