By Republicans are significantly more enthusiastic about the 2024 election rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump than either Democrats or independent voters, according to a new national poll.
And a survey released Monday by the Monmouth University Polling Institute also spotlights that enthusiasm among all registered voters in the Biden-Trump rematch — while remaining well under 50% — has jumped 12 points over the past year – to 39%.
‘Enthusiasm for a 2020 rematch has increased slightly now that these two candidates are the presumptive nominees. But most voters are not looking forward to November,’ Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray highlighted.
But the poll points to a glaring partisan divide in enthusiasm.
Sixty-three percent of Republicans questioned said they were very or somewhat enthusiastic about the second straight face-off between the Democratic incumbent in the White House and his GOP predecessor.
That figure plunges to 36% among Democrats surveyed, and down to 27% among independents.
The poll is also the latest national survey to point to a close contest between Biden and Trump. Forty-four percent said they will definitely or probably support Trump in the presidential election, with 43% saying the same thing about Biden.
Forty-nine percent offered that they would definitely not vote for the president, with 48% saying the same thing about the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.
Eighteen percent of those questioned said that they would definitely or probably cast a ballot for Democrat turned independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the longtime environmental activist and high-profile vaccine skeptic.
‘Support for Kennedy is not particularly strong even among voters who dislike both Biden and Trump. If he can’t score a decisive win with these voters, it’s unclear what role he can play in this election other than as a spoiler,’ Murray highlighted. ‘The poll results suggest that the Kennedy effect is minimal. If the current situation holds, he would play a spoiler role only in a very close contest. Of course, everything is lining up for this election to be just that.’
Inflation (38%) and economic growth and jobs (37%) top the list of most important issues in the presidential election, according to the poll, followed by immigration (33%) and abortion (33%).
Immigration (56%) and inflation (53%) are the top ranking issues for Republicans when it comes to shaping their vote in the presidential election, while abortion (44%) is the most prominent issue for Democrats.
‘When partisan voters name their top issues in this election, it is not about weighing the candidates’ positions. It’s more about which issues are motivating them to get out to vote. You have to focus on the small group of voters who are up for grabs to see which issue may actually sway voters. In this case, it appears to be inflation,’ Murray noted.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted April 18-22, with 808 adults nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
