By Bitwise crypto research analyst Ryan Rasmussen estimates a 50% chance of approval for a Spot Ether ETF by May.
In a Yahoo Finance interview published Tuesday, he noted that the prospect of these ETFs is indeed attracting attention from institutional investors.
Ether is up 40% year-to-date, trading at $3,203, while Bitcoin is up 32% year-to-date, trading at $55,656.
“We’re seeing a lot of interest in the options and futures market for Ether ahead of that potential approval date,” Rasmussen said. “So I certainly think that’s contributing to the outperformance from Ethereum relative to Bitcoin this year and recently.”
In a landmark victory, Grayscale’s legal challenge in 2023 paved the way for potential approval of other spot Bitcoin ETFs as it successfully appealed the SEC’s rejection of its application.
Lawsuit Not in Picture for Ether ETF Approval
While Rasmussen said he doesn’t think a lawsuit might be necessary for Ethereum ETFs, he believes their approval in May is a coin toss, with a 50% chance it goes either way.
“I don’t know if a lawsuit is necessary,” he said. “We’re definitely not at the point where any of the issuers could file a lawsuit today. And so perhaps on the tail of a rejection, we could see that happening.”
Further, Rasmussen highlighted upcoming developments fueling the current crypto market rise. He said the March Dencun upgrade on the Ethereum network will significantly reduce transaction costs, attracting new users and fostering broader adoption.
He also credited Solana’s strong performance in 2024 and a renewed interest in NFT trading for the overall crypto market’s recovery from the 2022 crash.
Bitwise Spot Bitcoin ETF Crosses $1B in Assets
Joining the wave of spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in January, Bitwise’s ETF has already attracted over a billion dollars in assets, according to Rasmussen. He further noted that the broader Bitcoin-based Spot ETF market has witnessed a significant influx of capital, exceeding $15b.
“That’s all buying pressure on the underlying spot asset,” he said. “And when we have that kind of demand shock coming into the market, I think it’s no surprise we’ve seen the price of Bitcoin rise following the launch of those ETFs.”
Rasmussen predicted Bitcoin will exceed its previous record high of $69,000 by 10%-15%, potentially reaching $88,000 by year-end.
His prediction aligns with Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, who also foresees Bitcoin surpassing $80,000 this year, fueled by the success of ETFs and the impending Bitcoin halving.
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