By Bernstein analysts are doubling down on their $150,000 Bitcoin (BTC) price bet after their $70,000 price call last month came true.
In a new market research report, the broker cited the success of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs that launched in January and predicted that the asset will ‘break out’ after its halving event next month.
Bernstein Predicts $150,000 BTC
Bernstein’s analysis builds on its prior thesis published in November last year, calling for BTC to reach $150,000 by mid-2025. At the time, the analysis centered on Bitcoin’s halving event, its traditional four-year cycle, and how Bitcoin’s price tends to appreciate during bull markets next to its marginal production cost per coin.
Bitcoin ETFs, however, have changed things. Since launch, funds from BlackRock, Fidelity, and others have seen net inflows now exceeding $10 billion, absorbing 185,150.3 BTC in total.
For context, the Bitcoin halving will reduce the number of coins produced per day by 450 BTC. This will effectively equal 27,000 BTC worth of buying pressure over the same period – just a fraction of the buying impact created by the ETFs so far.
Bitcoin ETFs registered the largest net inflows ($648 million) since day 1 pic.twitter.com/tgipgk4uzY
— Gayatri (@GayatriPC_) March 6, 2024
That said, the halving is a highly anticipated event for BTC that’s proven predictive of past crypto bull markets. Going into the expected rally, Bernstein views Bitcoin mining firms as the best equity-based Bitcoin leverage play.
Bullish On Bitcoin Miners
“With bitcoin climbing new highs of $71K, we expect institutional interest in bitcoin equities to finally tip over, and bitcoin miners to be the largest beneficiaries,” wrote analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.
Noting that the long-term Bitcoin miner trade requires “more patience,” the analysts claimed that the miner equity market is still a retail-dominated space, with institutions staying skeptical of crypto and its proxy investments.
So far this year, most Bitcoin miners have massively underperformed Bitcoin and other proxies. While BTC is up 62% year to date, stock in firms like Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Iris Energy (IREN) are down 24% and 27% respectively.
Outshining most other miners this year is CleanSpark (CLSK), up 68% year to date after announcing numerous financing rounds for more mining machines in 2023. Bernstein believes CLSK and RIOT are likely to outperform in 2024, poised to “clock ~70% and 60% gross margin respectively.”
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